I'm curious about how many people need to be unemployed before we start seeing significant societal disruptions. Is it around 15% or 20%? I've encountered some scary predictions about lack of access to essentials like food, electricity, and water, alongside warnings of severe inflation like we saw in late-Weimar Germany. Yet, some optimistic voices in AI argue that there will be systems in place to prevent such negative outcomes before we reach that point. What are your thoughts on this?
1 Answer
During COVID, the unemployment rate reached about 14% but it didn't last long, and we injected a lot of financial support into the economy. I think if unemployment stays at 15% or more for six months or longer, that's when we'll see real disruption.
In a lot of poorer or developing countries, high unemployment is common and people manage to adapt. Here in the West, I see us moving towards a two-class system, with the elite and the struggling majority.