I'm curious about how soon we might realistically see widespread job displacement due to AI and whether universal basic income (UBI) will ever become a reality. Are there any predictions on timelines for these changes? If we don't have UBI, how are governments expected to ensure economic stability when job availability decreases?
5 Answers
Most jobs don't necessarily have to go away. Historical trends show that unemployment needs to hit about 15% before governments consider implementing something like UBI. Right now, we're around 4.2% in the U.S. So, if unemployment triples, we may see UBI discussions gain traction.
Honestly, there's a good chance that no one will actually 'save' us. It seems unlikely UBI will happen because the elite might prefer to keep wealth concentrated. The focus seems to be more on maintaining consumerism than true welfare for all.
Totally get your point. Society might prioritize profit over people for a while, especially if we keep seeing wealth inequality.
Yeah, as long as there are enough consumers to fuel the economy, they might just give out money to keep things stable enough.
In a best-case scenario, AI might take over many jobs, but instead of UBI, we could shift our workforce to focus on global challenges. We might end up working on projects like sustainable agriculture or waste management, rather than completely relying on a welfare system. It's hard to predict how resource distribution will look, but I believe that AI will optimize productivity rather than leave us all idle, which is kind of hopeful.
But will we still have enough people to handle essential care jobs like healthcare for the elderly? That's a huge area where AI might struggle.
Love this perspective! It's so important to maintain hope and think big as a society. Let's dream together!
I'd predict that by the early 2030s, some governments may start introducing UBI, but it'll depend on how quickly job displacement from AI ramps up. Right now, discussions are happening behind the scenes, and the pressure will mount as we get closer to that tipping point.
I see what you're saying, but investigations show that junior jobs are still hiring. Maybe we need to give it more time?
Time will tell, but I agree it's looking like some sectors will need to adapt quickly.
Kurzweil predicts that most developed countries will have UBI by 2034. It seems like a stretch but it seems plausible considering all the changes happening now. The truth is that how fast we migrate to this system really depends on socioeconomic factors and public demand.
But can we really expect the wealth disparity to shrink significantly by then?
It’s complicated, especially since many are worried the rich will just enrich themselves further and forget the rest of us.
Exactly! People usually think UBI is a free pass, but the government often provides jobs during high unemployment, not just money.