I'm curious how people who support near-term AGI timelines leading to ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) reconcile their beliefs with the Fermi Paradox, which questions why we haven't observed any signs of extraterrestrial civilizations despite the vastness of the universe. If ASI is as inevitable and powerful as some believe, wouldn't at least one alien civilization have developed it long before us? With the universe being 13.8 billion years old and our planet's history showing that intelligent life is possible, why don't we see evidence of advanced extraterrestrial intelligence? Here are a few possibilities I've come up with: 1) Maybe we're alone in producing intelligent life, 2) perhaps advanced civilizations self-destruct before achieving ASI, 3) could it be that ASI is already out there but remains undetectable, or 4) what if AGI/ASI isn't as powerful or inevitable as we think? I would love to hear your thoughts on how those who believe in both extraterrestrial life and a near-term AGI reconcile these ideas.
5 Answers
It’s quite possible that achieving complex life, let alone intelligence, is an exceptionally rare outcome. While basic life might be common, advanced, intelligent life may be a rarity due to various filters that prevent civilizations from reaching ASI.
John Smart’s transcension hypothesis is intriguing—advanced civilizations might leave our universe entirely, evolving into states we can't even comprehend. This could explain why we don't see them around.
I find that concept fascinating, but I can't help but feel conflicted about it. The idea of advanced aliens neglecting us feels both compelling and kind of cult-like.
Space is enormous! We might just be at the beginning of a cosmic timeline. Civilizations could have developed advanced intelligence but are too far apart or recently started arising, making their signals undetectable to us right now.
Exactly! The universe has plenty of time left. It's like watching bacteria grow in a dish; they'll cover the space eventually, just not all at once.
Some argue ASI doesn't necessarily mean it’s all-powerful or 'god-like.' For example, there are physical limitations, such as the impossible nature of superluminal travel, that might explain why we haven't detected alien civilizations.
But physical limitations like time-dilation could allow for significant travel under constant acceleration. It’s not impossible to reach distant galaxies within a few years, at least in theory.
It's essential to keep our minds open to various possibilities. The emergence of intelligent life might be too complex to reduce to simple equations or predictions, and the chance that we are alone is still highly plausible.
Agreed! It’s a mix of many factors. Civilization level intelligence won't automatically lead to AI development, and perhaps we’ve only scratched the surface of what’s out there.
Indeed! The universe has billions of years left for habitable stars, and we might simply be early in this timeline.