What Would the Transition to Universal Basic Income Look Like?

Transitioning to UBI is going to be chaotic, more so than most people realize. History shows that societal changes often come with severe unrest. The current economic system benefits the wealthiest, and once people begin to notice the increasing gap in wealth, we might see riots before any UBI bills are actively considered. Unfortunately, major economic redistribution typically requires significant societal upheaval before any change is made.

I believe that if we do get UBI, it might morph through various iterations based on what becomes politically feasible. We could start with limited assistance, slowly moving towards a UBI-like system once drastic changes trigger enough public demand for it. It's also likely that societal structure will shift; people may compete in non-economic ways as traditional jobs evaporate.

Honestly, I don't think UBI is feasible at all. If there's a widespread job loss without a plan in place, you could end up with civil unrest. The rich may just ignore the average person and let things spiral downward. The current system's lack of political will as evidenced in past elections shows that it’s impossible to count on UBI being implemented soon.

I think the shift to UBI, if it happens, will start slow. We might initially see unemployment benefits expanded significantly. This would probably give rise to measures like a reduced workweek for anyone employing AI technology. It may not be a full UBI immediately but rather a patchwork of assistance to help ease the transition.

I can see a scenario where we get something like UBI only after significant crisis hits the economy. The rich may try to implement temporary benefits to mitigate social unrest, but real UBI? That's far off. It’s more likely we’ll see an increased reliance on welfare assistance while navigating this transitional chaos.