I'm really into generative media like music and videos, and I can't help but think that there might be a significant shift coming soon. If we reach AGI levels within the next couple of years, do you think that would drive up the cost of chips and GPUs? I'm concerned that it might end up being more expensive than I hope for when trying to run video models for personal projects, like my own generative TV shows. Are we likely to see advancements from companies like Groq, Cerebras, and AMD that could help keep costs manageable? I'd love to hear your thoughts or theories on this whole situation.
4 Answers
Historically, technology tends to get cheaper over time. So it's possible that we'll see prices stabilize or even drop as efficiency improves, even with higher demand from AGI advancements. But it’s totally valid to be concerned about short-term spikes.
Wafers are getting more expensive already, so that's a concern. Although we might see an increase in chip production, the true cost effectiveness for consumer-level systems is still a big question mark.
You’re right to question the dynamics at play here. While chip supply is increasing and efficiencies are rising, the actual demand could outpace supply if more use cases develop. I sold my NVIDIA stock because it’s a wild card — too many variables to really predict how it’ll shake out.
Yeah, it’s pretty uncertain. I think we really need a larger global focus on chip production to alleviate these concerns.
The trend seems to indicate that hobby-level AI systems might struggle to keep up with complex needs. For instance, handling real-time AI NPCs like in Fortnite requires serious infrastructure. A single user isn’t utilizing enough resources to make local setups financially viable compared to cloud solutions, which are generally much cheaper in bulk.
I disagree! With the right investment, we can definitely create viable AI NPCs in games using smaller models, and player subscriptions can help cover costs.
I really hope you’re right about that!